Boston Red Sox Nation: May 2003

These Buyers are Wary, Weary

"Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production; and the interest of the producer ought to be attended to, only so far as it may be necessary for promoting that of the consumer."

- Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

5.13.03: As you've no doubt noticed there's a fundamental tension between producer and consumer in all things Red Sox.

We, the consumer, have been roundly criticized for, well, being critical. It has been suggested that we are pathological in our love of misery and that we wouldn't know how to handle success. Some say we are fickle. Some say we don't know how good we have it. We are told to be patient (my personal favorite), even as our grandparents die never having enjoyed a championship. We are mean, unforgiving, spiteful, hateful, negative.

All of that may be true, but, above all, the Red Sox consumer is a smart shopper.

The producer has made a product that they believe should be perfectly satisfactory to the consumer, a team that wins more than it loses, plays exciting games and even wears brand new red jerseys in some home games.

So why is their complaint box brimming over? It's simple. Their consumers are simply too shrewd, too steeped in the laws of caveat emptor to be duped by this product. We are the discerning parent who sees the poor workmanship in the shiny toy our child so desperately wants. We know it will fall apart the second time he plays with it. We are looking for a product that can last until the end of October. This ain't it.

The team defense is lousy, the bullpen is a nightmare, the superstar has prematurely entered the decline phase of his career and the manager often seems in over his head.

While Jeremy Giambi's phenomenal gack with the bases loaded was truly stunning, there were two other plays in Sunday's one-run loss that are much more troubling to me because they involved a player who is a regular at the position in question. The Twins' first hitter of the game, Jacques Jones, bounced a harmless ground ball about a stride and a half to Todd Walker's right. This is a play that a Major League second baseman should make 95 percent of the time, meaning it is slightly more difficult than average, but only slightly. Walker made his slow, ungainly crossover step to his right, got to the ball much more off-balance than he should have been and made a weak, terrible throw to first that pulled the first baseman off the bag. Infield hit. You've got to be able to get to this ball in time to plant that back foot and make a decent throw to first -- or you simply cannot play second base in the Majors. Jones came around to score the Twins first run, an earned run mind you. Later, with the game seemingly out of reach, Bruce Chen induced the most routine of double play balls, hit right at Walker. Ol' Stone Hands botched it, recovered, and got the runner at first. No error. The run that scored on the play was once again earned, but Chen should have been out of the inning. You don't need John Thorn and Pete Palmer's complicated fielding stats to tell you Todd Walker is a terrible second baseman (his stats are spectacularly poor), all you need is an understanding of the game... and vision.

Back to Giambi's much more memorable play for a moment. How was he not charged with two errors on this play? As he settled under the flair it's safe to assume the runners started retreating to their bags, right? He drops it, allowing the runner on third to score. Then he fumbles the one-hop bounce off the turf. Then he bobbles the ball a third time as he bends to pick it up. Even if you say the runner on second would have scored on the initial drop, there is no way the runner on first goes to third and the batter ends up on second without the additional spasticity. Ah, the joy of a roster with five DHs.

So much has been written and bemoaned about our horrible bullpen that it feels like tilting at windmills to go over it again. But I will say that it is highly unlikely that Robert Person is the answer. He was never a good closer in Toronto (his ERA was 7.04 and 9.82 in the two seasons he recorded saves as a Blue Jay). He has never had an impressive WHIP. And he is coming off an injury. Not a formula for late-career success.

As for our struggling superstar, I am now resigned to the sad belief that we will never see the old Nomar again. He may hit .300 with 50 doubles and 20 homers (Cooperstown numbers, to be sure), but you know what I mean. Larry Bird averaged 20 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7 assists in his final season, but he wasn't Larry. For the first four seasons of Nomar's career we were gripped by the giddy knowledge that he kept getting better... .306, .323, .357, .372. Yeesh, at this rate, the guy will be hitting .440 in three years. Now the inexorable, injury-fueled slide has begun. Nomar's petulant pig-headedness and medical condition (see OCD and OBP in the archive) aren't helping matters, but the fade always comes eventually. We just didn't want it to be so soon.

The manager. While I think Grady Little has been something of a revelation this year, much more in tune with what is actually happening on the field, I still think he has serious limitations. Like many of my fellow consumers, I happen to know that the Minnesota Twins really struggle against lefthanders, which is why I was not surprised that the Royals promising lefty Jeremy Affeldt beat them last night. Grady Little is either unaware of this statistical trend or does not have access to a Red Sox schedule. Given the added flexibility of an off day (and a quick ejection), how Grady managed to have Casey Fossum miss the Twins twice is incredible. Instead, he had Derek Lowe pitch the final game of the road trip on the rug and responded with incredulity that so many ground balls got through. Yeah, Grady, that's what happens on turf (especially when you have a lousy second baseman). Wouldn't it make more sense to have Fossum, a strikeout-flyball pitcher, take the turn in Minny and have the sinkerballing Lowe open the homestand - where his ERA is 12 runs better - against the homer-happy Rangers? Of course it would.

The consumers know this. And they wish the producers did too.

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5.3.03 - Does anyone remember the old Nomar?

The bigger the situation, the harder he'd hit the ball. Everything was a rope. Or a bomb. Remember those two playoff series against the Indians? Or the ALCS against the Yankees? In 54 postseason plate appearances he has an impossible 1.399 OPS with a .383 BA, .463 OBP and a .936 slugging percentage. These numbers just don't happen in October.

During his back-to-back batting title seasons of 1999 and 2000 I'm sure Nomar popped weakly to the right side on a pitch out of the strike zone a couple of times. I just can't remember it. Now it seems to happen every time he comes to the plate with a runner in scoring position.

What changed?

Can it all be traced to Sept. 25, 1999 when Baltimore's Al Reyes dotted Nomar on the longitudinal tendon? Nomar played the entire 2000 season with the tendon fraying, hit .372 and, most encouragingly, drew a career high 61 walks. But then the dam burst, the tendon split and all the progress he had made in raising his OBP from .345 his rookie year to .439 in year four was seemingly wiped away. When he came back, he was jumping at the ball, swinging at everything and resolutely refusing to draw a walk as he posted a .352 OBP in 21 games.

But 21 post-surgery games was hardly a fair sample to gauge just how much Nomar had regressed in his hitting approach. So we all waited with bated breath for 2002. He had almost 700 plate appearances last year and walked 41 times, repeating the .352 OBP he had put up in his abbreviated 2001 season. The strength certainly seemed to have returned to his wrist as he piled up 85 extra-base hits, including 24 home runs. But the modicum of patience he was slowly starting to develop over his first four seasons was gone.

Compounding the OBP problem, Nomar was no longer killing first pitches. Why?

I think something else was happening concurrently with Nomar's rehabilitation/
comeback. Word was going around: Do not throw this guy a first pitch strike. He will chase balls up, he will chase balls down, he will chase balls away. So when Nomar returned to full strength, he was facing a completely different league, a league in which the only first-pitch strikes he saw were mistakes. He didn't adjust, hitting .325 on first pitches, down from .432 in 2000. Nomar defenders, indeed Nomar himself, will say, "What's wrong with hitting .325?" Well, while .325 is an excellent batting average, it is a lousy on-base percentage, and no one ever drew a walk by putting the first pitch in play. Furthermore, giving pitchers one-pitch outs 67.5 percent of the time is no way to get into the opposition bullpen. So far this year, Nomar seems to have regressed even more with a .323 OBP in the reasonable sample of 140 plate appearances. Apparently someone didn't get the memo about building pitch counts because he's walked only six times, on pace for a 715-AB, 34-walk season.

Particularly distressing has been Nomar's inability to hit with men in scoring position. It's not just the outs, it's the kind of outs. It has become all too familiar. The Sox arduously load the bases (often through steely patience), the crowd rises in expectation, the opposing pitcher is hanging by a thread. And Nomar pops up the first pitch, deflating the team, the crowd and his OBP and BA with RISP.

Pitchers are naturally more cautious with runners in scoring position (particularly if first base is open), meaning hitters should be more selective, but Nomar becomes completely incontinent in these situations, often lunging at first pitches as if he were saddled with an 0-2 count and forced to protect the plate. So far this season he is 6-for-39 with RISP, a .154 batting average. He should bat behind Manny for two reasons: one, because he has a much lower OBP, and, two, so that he could watch from the proximity of the on-deck circle a professional hitter who understands the value of getting his pitch.

But on a deeper, more philosophical level, why do you suppose Nomar is such an undisciplined, impatient hitter? I would argue that he is medically incapable of patience. Stay with me here.

In case you haven't noticed, Nomar Garciaparra has Obsessive Compulsive Disorder. The batting gloves, the spikes, the dugout steps. He is ticking at a different RPM. I'll bet he's not real good at sitting in traffic either. All the ticks, the tugs, the tap dancing down the steps would be merely quirky and endearing if he could then slow himself down when the pitcher comes to the set. Relax, pick out a zone and a pitch and work the at-bat until you get that pitch you can drive. Manny is so relaxed at the plate he looks like he could nod off in the wind-up and awake in time to hit yet another rocket. The difference: Manny needs to be convinced to swing by the attractiveness of the pitch; Nomar needs to be convinced not to swing by the unreachability of a pitch.

But wait, you say, Nomar had OCD when he was winning batting titles and getting on base over 40% of the time. True, but for some reason pitchers were throwing him strikes. The coiled snake, high-strung nervous energy of OCD is probably a good thing when pitchers are throwing cookies. Combine the new book on Nomar with his old habits, however, and you get too many easy outs and an unacceptably low OBP for such a gifted hitter.

Even when pitchers do throw him first pitch strikes with men in scoring position, it's often a breaking ball, like the hanging curve he belted from Roy Halliday to double home the tying run before hitting his solo walk-off shot two innings later.

The solution? Nomar should approach first pitches like most hitters view 3-1 pitches. If it's not a fatty in his happy zone, he should take it. He'll find he's up in the count 1-0 an awful lot. At 1-0, narrow the happy zone even further. Once he starts getting ahead 2-0 and 3-1, he'll have a month where he hits .400 and word will get out that Nomar is no longer expanding the zone on first pitches and we'll see a return to those 1999 and 2000 numbers.

If Nomar develops some peace and stillness at the plate, watch out. Cure the OCD and you'll cure the OBP.

Take a pitch, buddy.

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5.4.03: Oh, God. I think I'm going to be sick.

I haven't squirmed like this since I watched my fiancée get laser eye surgery.

The Red Sox don't "play" defense, they "fight" defense. I'm still trying to figure out which of today's throws to the plate was most nauseating: Johnny Damon's embarrassing fling from shallow center, Nomar's almost physically impossible misfire from shallow left or Shea Hillenbrand's gack from 70 feet away. Sure, the bullpen has been a disaster, but that could be largely solved with one deadline acquisition. The team's wretched defense and organization-wide disregard for its importance will plague the Sox this season and beyond. And don't be fooled by fielding percentage. While the Sox made a bunch of errors in dropping this weekend's series, it's the balls they don't get to, the DPs they don't turn and the cutoff men they miss that kill them.

Where to begin? Well, since we embarrassed ourselves against the Twins, let's start with our twins: David Ortiz and Jeremy Giambi.

Ortiz and Giambi are clones offensively. Ortiz has a career .264 batting average with an .805 career OPS and Giambi has an identical .264 BA and an .809 OPS. They are both incredibly slow and yet in their brief time with the Sox both have hit the ball on the ground more than in the air. But the real similarity is on defense, where both are zeroes. I watched a spring training game in which Ortiz looked lost on a bunt popped in front of him, let another popup land right behind him and butchered a routine ground ball. No range, no instincts, no hands. What does it say that Grady Little believes Giambi is worse? And why would you need both these players on your roster? Do we really need to do more research on the October effectiveness of stockpiling slow, stone-gloved DH-types? These guys are the poster children for not caring about defense. Can you imagine how quickly the bile would fill your throat on a difficult chopper hit to Ortiz's right in a close playoff game?

What about new acquisitions Todd Walker and Kevin Millar? I love their approach at the plate, but, again, they are significantly below average defensively. Walker's range limitations are well-documented, his pivot is less than slick, his arm unimpressive and his hands none too soft.

Millar is a gamer, a terrific hitter and clearly a wonderful teammate. I love this guy. But without a bat in his hand, he's hurting the team. For some reason he was playing first in the bottom of the ninth with a one-run lead in Anaheim last weekend - perhaps Grady forgot that he had dubbed Shea our late-inning defensive first baseman. Millar charged a ball he should have waited on, turned it into an in-between hop and booted it. It wasn't that he made an error -- everyone does -- it was the way he booted it that was so depressing. In that moment, your suspicions were confirmed. Our new favorite player is basically another DH.

Against the Twins Friday night Millar had three misplays that were not errors, the most embarrassing of which was being several feet from the bag as he tried to complete a routine 3-6-3 double play. The ball finds your weak defenders. And on this team, how can it not?

Today, the Sox created one of the largest Bermuda triangles in Major League history by starting Millar in right with Ortiz at first, leaving second baseman Bill Mueller responsible for all the acreage between the two thick-wasted statues. If you remember, though you can be excused for trying to forget, all the trouble started on a pop fly by Dustin Mohr down the right-field line with the Sox leading 4-0. Mueller made a solid effort in trying to reach the ball, but Millar and Ortiz weren't even in the picture when the ball plunked down in fair territory. Captain Ahab and Peter Stuyvesant would cover more ground than this seemingly peg-legged duo.

While we're out there, let's talk about our regular rightfielder. Trot Nixon tries his hardest on every play. It is very hard to fault a guy for this. But here goes. Most of Trot's defensive mistakes stem from his consuming desire. Even though his arm is not in the Ichiro-Vlad class, he wants to throw everyone out, no matter if the guy is already three-quarters of the way home as the ball reaches him. This leads to his chronic airmailing of the cutoff man. How many times has a runner moved up into scoring position under the comical parabola of one of Trot's rainbows? But perhaps the best example to date of Trot's desire hurting the team came last week against Kansas City. With two outs and nobody on, Carlos Beltran hit a sinking line drive at Trot. Base hit all the way. But valor always being the better part of discretion for Trot, he made a ridiculous dive for the ball, failed to get a glove on it and had the ball bounce over him for an inside-the-park home run. It reminded me of Mike Greenwell's "bad hustle," the kind of unthinking effort that announcers usually excuse with the lame "you can't fault a guy for hustling like that." Guess what? You can. You should. Dumb plays are dumb plays. With the winning run on third, you dive for that ball. With two outs and nobody on in a scoreless game, you take it on a hop.

And why does Johnny Damon look like he's throwing with his off hand? This is the throwing motion my mom uses to toss the football around with her grandson. Seriously, can a guy have this weak an arm in the Major Leagues? He would have the third-strongest outfield arm on my softball team. (I'm not kidding.) In today's debacle, the less-than-speedy Corey Koskie tagged and scored on a 200-foot pop fly to center. I actually thought Damon's throw might come to rest before it reached home plate. The worst part is that even Johnny was apparently surprised that someone would try to score on such a shallow pop, so instead of gathering behind the ball and catching it in mid-crow-hop, he caught it flat-footed before starting his arthritic, herky-jerky throwing motion.

Which brings us to today's other two nominees for most humiliating imitation of an adult male throwing a baseball.

For the second time this season -- anyone remember Pedro's lone unearned run in the Opening Day calamity? -- Shea Hillenbrand failed to throw a guy out at the plate when he could have beaten the runner by rolling the ball home. But, in fairness, Shea continues to improve at the hot corner, and if he plays a couple games at first each week, I'll bet he doesn't even lead the league in errors by a third baseman for the second straight year.

Nomar, however, made a strong statement Friday night that he won't give up the American League Error Crown he won last year without a fight. After leading the league with 25 E's last season, Nomar doubled his early-season total with three E-6's in Friday's loss to the Twins. Somehow he avoided another error today when the official scorer awarded Michael Cuddyer a triple -- on a ball into the left-field corner? -- after Nomar made one of his classic Bend It Like Beckham throws, oh, 30 feet off target in the direction of home plate. The sad thing is that all three runners would have been out at home with the simplest C+ throws.

So let's sum up:

The Red Sox left side each led their position in errors last year. The Red Sox new right side is a significant downgrade from last year and perhaps the worst in the American League. The centerfielder can't throw. This team was built for 12-9 games in July.

What is it again that wins championships? Pitching and...

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